Treasury Yields Fluctuate

Published November 21, 2025

Treasury yields varied throughout the week as investors anticipated economic data following the longest government shutdown in U.S. history and reviewed the Fed minutes which revealed a split on the rate outlook. Yields declined later in the week as markets reacted to the delayed September jobs report, which showed an uptick in the unemployment rate.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest meeting, where the Fed approved a quarter-point interest rate cut to between 3.75% to 4.0%. At the meeting, policy makers were skeptical about another interest rate cut in December, noting that further reductions are likely ahead, but are not needed next month.

“Several participants assessed that a further lowering of the target range for the federal funds rate could well be appropriate in December if the economy evolved about as they expected over the coming intermeeting period,” the minutes noted. “Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of November 17 at 4.15% and traded as low as 4.09% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.75% and traded as low as 4.71% on Thursday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor resumed weekly publishing and reported that initial claims for unemployment dropped by 8,000 to 220,000 for the week ending November 15. This was below economists’ estimates of 230,000. Continuing claims increased by 28,000 to 1.97 million. On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its delayed September jobs report which showed the unemployment rate increased to a four-year high of 4.4% in September, an increase from 4.3% in August. The report also noted an increase of 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, well above economists’ forecasts of 50,000 and up from a revised 4,000 decline in August.

“September’s jobs report shows the labor market still had resilience before the shutdown, beating payroll expectations, but the picture remains muddy with August jobs revised to a job loss and the unemployment rate increasing,” wrote chief economist at Glassdoor, Daniel Zhao. “These numbers are a snapshot from two months ago and they do not reflect where we stand now in November.”

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 11/17 at 4.07%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.71%.