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Treasury Yields Vary

Published December 12, 2025

U.S. Treasury yields dipped mid-week as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate cut. Yields rose at the end of the week as the latest employment data shows cause for concern for the labor market and its effects on monetary policy.

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 9-3 vote in favor of lowering interest rates by one quarter of a percentage point to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. This marks the third consecutive interest rate cut this year as the Fed continues its efforts to support the job market despite inflation remaining above its preferred levels.

“There is no risk-free path for monetary policy, but it seems the committee is banking on higher productivity, implying stronger growth despite softer job creation,” said chief economist at LPL Financial, Jeffrey Roach. “Projections with stronger growth and lower unemployment suggest the Fed will remain committed to bringing inflation down. Investors should expect the Fed to remain on hold in Q1, especially if the economy responds to the tailwinds from fiscal and policy support. The first cut next year may come in Q2.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of December 8 at 4.14% and traded as low as 4.11% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.79% and traded as low as 4.75% on Thursday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment increased by 44,000 to 236,000 for the week ending December 6. This was higher than economists’ estimates of 220,000 and marked the largest number of claims filed in over four years. Continuing unemployment claims fell by 99,000 to 1.84 million.

"It is a little surprising that recent layoff announcements have not translated into a shift higher in initial claims," said lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, Nancy Vanden Houten. "It may be that some workers who have lost their jobs have received generous severance packages or have found other employment, although that is more difficult in the current labor market with a depressed rate of hiring."

The 10-year Treasury note yield ended the week of 12/8 at 4.18%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.84%.