Treasury Yields Lower

Published June 26, 2026

U.S. Treasury yields moved lower earlier in the week as investors assessed the latest economic conditions and waited for key inflation data. Yields remained lower at the end of the week as the latest employment data showed a stable labor market.

On Thursday, the Commerce Department announced that the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, which measures the cost of goods and services purchased by U.S. households, rose 4.1% in May. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.4% on an annual basis. Both readings were in line with analysts’ expectations.

“A pickup in core inflation was the most important part of today's economic releases, adding to the likelihood that the Fed raises rates in the next 12 months,” said chief U.S. economist for Fifth Third Commercial Bank, Bill Adams. “The Fed will be unhappy about inflation when they meet next in July, but likely will still hold rates steady.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of June 22 at 4.46% and traded as low as 4.37% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.90% and traded as low as 4.82% on Thursday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment reached 215,000 for the week ending June 20. This was down 12,000 from the prior week and below analysts’ expectations of 223,000. Continuing unemployment claims increased by 21,000 to 1.82 million.

"If the data continues to show persistence in inflation and some tightening in the labor market, then the Fed should be hiking sometime before year end," said chief global economist at JPMorgan, Bruce Kasman. "The problem the Fed's going to have over the next six to nine months is the labor market is going to tighten."

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 6/22 at 4.37%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.87%.